Defection in AAP and fast changing political narrative in Punjab

 

Defection in AAP and fast changing political narrative in Punjab

Ground Zero

Jagtar Singh 

Seven of the 10 Rajya Sabha members belonging to the Aam Aadmi Party hit party chief Arvind Kejriwal hard with the announcement to shift their loyalties to the Bharatiya Janata Party. Rajya Sabha chairman C. P. Radhakrishnan approved their merger with the BJP on Monday morning. What is all the more important is that six of these MPs had been elected to the Rajya Sabha from Punjab. The logical corollary would be the likely impact of this revolt on the electoral dynamics of this border state whose religio-political dynamics is unique as compared to other states in India.

Of course, the religio-political domain in Punjab has historical tendency to erupt. The eruption on April 24 was confined purely to political domain. The tremors this time are strong and would continue to be felt in the days to come. At the same time,  this revolt is not rooted in Punjab but in Delhi. This eruption, however, impacted the dominating narrative in the state.

The shifting of loyalties by seven of the 10 Rajya Sabha members of the highly ambitious and fast-paced Aam Aadmi Party on April 24 not only gave severe jolt to party supremo Arvind Kejriwal but also outpaced all other religio-political narratives in Punjab, a highly sensitive state where the party is in power. Punjab is now on the topmost priority of the Bharatiya Janata Party. These seven MPs, including the two who at one time used to be perceived to be the right and the left arm of the party chief, joined the BJP. The arguments by the three who led the revolt and reached to BJP headquarters to formally receive the bouquet from Nitin Nabin for this crossover appear to be superficial. The three were Raghav Chadha, strategist Sandeep Pathak and Ashok Mittal, the last having been raised by the enforcement directorate a couple of hours  earlier. Mittal had earlier replaced Chadha as deputy leader of the party in the Rajya Sabha giving the signal that something was brewing. The other four include Swati Maliwal, Rajinder Gupta, Harbhajan Singh and Vikramjit Singh Sahney.

It is pertinent to recall that for about more than a year, Chadha was perceived to be the super chief minister in the corridors of power in Punjab after the party swept the polls in 2022 and civil and police officers used to report to him thereby hinting that Chief Minister Bhagwant Singh Mann was still to tighten his grip over affairs of the state. Pathak had the main role in the selection of the candidates, even in successive bye-elections under Mann. The only purpose of referring to their role is to explore as to what triggered the revolt against Kejriwal, although this has not happened for the first time. Even during formative years of the party, many of those including Prashant Bhushan, Yoginder Yadav  and Dr. Dharam Vira Gandhi who were instrumental in founding the party had to quit over differences with Kejriwal.

Punjab is not new to  such development but this time, there is a difference. A section of the MLAs had revolted when the party had come up as the main opposition in 2017 Assembly elections with 20 MLAs. Earlier, there used to be split in  the ruling party but the new faction would continue to function in that very religio-political domain. The latest case is that of formation of Akali Dal (Punar Surjit) following revolt in the Shiromani Akali Dal led by Sukhbir Singh Badal. The revolt by the MPs in AAP has followed with joining the BJP.

Interestingly, within hours of this revolt by these MPs, the party has successfully mobilised its volunteers. This is important in the context that going by the reports appearing  from time to time, the party rank and file were feeling neglected. The party leadership has counterattacked this revolt at the level of mass mobilisation as demonstrations have been staged in the state against them.

In this context, there is an important dimension.  Questions had been raised at the time tickets were given to these people to enter Rajya Sabha at the cost of those who had been toiling for the party. They were the money bags. They are the people lacking connect at the ground level. Their selection had raised the basic question of the Aam Aadmy Party having lost its basic character of representing the common man- the Aam Aadmi. Party supremo Arvind Kejriwal owes explanation to the people for making such wrong choices. What has happened is the result of his own doing. He is harvesting what he cultivated.

The very next dimension is its impact on the support base of the party in Punjab, the only state where it is in power. Raghav Chadha and Sandeep Pathak have direct connect with the MLAs and ministers in Punjab. The impact has to take into account the organisational aspect and the legislature party.

Both these MPs are known to be good managers but not mass leaders. The first damage they can cause is to dent the image of the party. But then going by popular perception, the party has already lost some sheen due to some other factors, including arrogance and life style of those in power, besides some factors rooted in governance. One of such issues that comes up while moving around the state is corruption.

The  second dimension is split in the legislature party. This does not necessarily need two-third majority. The government can be reduced to minority by winning over about 40 MLAs. In a house of 117, this can reduce the government to minority. This strategy would test grip of chief minister Bhagwant Singh Mann over his MLAs and ministers.

Would destabilisation of Mann  government help the BJP in the elections? It is a double edge weapon. The historic perception in Punjab is that this region has always been wronged by Delhi. Mann could project himself  as the victim of the centre.

A distinction has to be made here in the context of Arvind Kejriwal and Mann. This revolt questions leaders of Kejriwal and has less to do with Mann. Moreover, the level of interference by Kejriwal and his team in Punjab has been very high. The people had given an unprecedented mandate to instal a team that could bring about qualitative change. The interference was at every level.

This could now change with Kejriwal having been hit hard.

Does the BJP gain from hitting Kejriwal? Besides the space the BJP occupies in Punjab, one has to go to the very roots of the formation of AAP. This party was the product of anti-corruption movement designed by an institution associated with RSS. This party was perceived to replace the Congress and the experiment succeeded first in Delhi and then in Punjab. In the process, however, the BJP too felt its space too getting encroached. The so-called increase in vote-share in Punjab does not reflect the real picture.

Ironically, in the state in which Sikh religio-political issues come to dictate the electoral dynamics, the contest  is shaping up as AAP versus the Congress. This situation might change in case of the unity of Panthic forces. Detained MP Amritpal Singh has already been announced as the chief minister face by his party. Efforts are on to unite Panthic factions  with the exclusion of Shiromani Akali Dal.

Amritpal’s  detention under NSA ended on April 23 last but he continues to be in Dibrugarh jail under judicial remand in the Ajnala police station clash. His party Akali Dal Waris Punjab De and Akali Dal (Punar Surjit) have decided in principle to enter the poll arena together and  talks are on to rope in other Panthic groups. It must be taken into account that in the Panthic domain, the groups that don’t contest election too count in shaping the narrative. Weakening of Mann in Punjab would benefit the Congress more, not the BJP. Can the BJP afford revival of the Congress in Punjab?

It is the Sikh domain that jolted the Mann government into action to amend Jaagat Jot Guru Granth Sahib Act of 2008 to provide strict for punishment for acts of sacrilege. It is a different matter that another section of the Sikhs has opposed legal protection to Guru Granth Sahib. This is an example as to how the Bargari sacrilege continue to impact the electoral narrative. The issue of justice to the Bargari related cases is a separate issue. It is the undercurrent in such matters that just can’t be ignored. History of Punjab provides necessary lessons in such cases provided one is willing to learn.

Finally, it can be concluded that the shift by seven of these MPs to BJPs might not have the desired effect to weaken AAP in Punjab in the absence of a split in the AAP legislature party by reducing the Mann government to minority. It might prove counter-productive otherwise.

What is important is fast changing narrative in Punjab. Rs 10 lakh health insurance scheme was followed by Rs. 1000 monthly pension for women. The sacrilege narrative overtook the pension scheme. This split is the latest narrative.

The last 72 hours play crucial role in Punjab and the trend may continue in the February 2027 polls.