Eruption in Sikh democratic domain and BJP’s simultaneous rise are most salient dimensions of Punjab Lok Sabha poll

 

Eruption in democratic Sikh domain and BJP’s simultaneous rise most salient dimensions of Punjab Lok Sabha poll

Jagtar Singh

Chandigarh: The Lok Sabha election in Punjab is not just statistics.

For the record of the statistics, of course, out of 13 seats, the Congress has retained seven seats (it had eight in 2019), ruling Aam Aadmi Party has succeeded in three, Shiromani Akali Dal has taken one while two seats have elected independents from Sikh domain.

The statistics does not provide much insight into the electoral dynamics of the state.

Electoral dynamics, of course, is one part of the narrative and the other, and more important, is the religio-political dynamics associated with it.

It is the eruption in the Sikh religio-political matrix that is the most important dimension of this election and that part can be explained only by the religio-political dynamics.

AAP had come to power in 2022 Assembly elections in Punjab by capturing unprecedented 92 seats out of 117 and most of them were first timers.

AAP, however, has been hit by head wind and  has managed to win only three seats going by the statistics. Another part of the data is that the party managed to retain only 32 Assembly segments as compared to 92 segments it had won in 2022 and as such, it is a steep fall. The seats the ruling party has won include Sangrur, Anandpur Sahib and Hoshiarpur.

The problem with AAP is that although the nascent party was bestowed with unprecedented mandate by the people frustrated with traditional rulers, it failed to evolved, or even start working on evolving future vision of this state whose political dynamics is at times characterized by strong undercurrents. The party confined itself to the politics of freebies. Future vision can’t be evolved without having sense of history of this region. AAP has not so far rooted itself in the organic reality of Punjab that also include living with dignity and honour. AAP has to have productive engagement with the masses that is not possible without understanding the historical context. Disconnect from people is the worst enemy of any ruling party.

The seven seats with the Congress include Amritsar, Gurdaspur, Jalandhar, Ferozepur, Patiala, Ludhiana and Fatehgarh Sahib. The party was pushed down to second position in 54 seats and the vote share having gone down to 26.02 per cent as against 42.01 per cent in 2022 Assembly elections. It is pertinent to mention here that this comparison has not to be made with 2019 Lok Sabha election as the steep fall in popularity has to be judged only in relation to the mandate given by the people in 2022. This party too was without any agenda and pinned its hopes on what can be termed as the rebound politics that is rooted in anti-incumbency. This thinking is the legacy of the period when Punjab was bipolar.

Bathinda has been retained by Harsimrat Kaur Badal of the Shiromani Akali Dal.

However, the steep fall in the fortunes of the Shiromani Akali Dal remains unchecked with vote share having gone down to 13.42 per cent. Party contested all the 13 seats and ten of its candidates forfeited security deposit. The party had gone to the lowest ever three seats in the 2022 Assembly election but now the situation is the worst. Would the party introspect the reasons for this mess? This exercise was never carried out after the 2022 rout. Of course, one committee was set up headed by Iqbal Singh Jhoonda to make recommendations for rejuvenation but its report was never made public. Even the members of that committee don’t have a copy.

Akali Dal continues to be the victim of confusion after this second oldest political party and once the voice of the Sikhs tried to redefine its role that led to it to its present wilderness. The party continues to be in a flux while continuing to vacillate between Panth and Punjab.

What is worst for the Akali Dal is that its once alliance partner Bharatiya Janata Party grabbed vote share of18.56 per cent, the third highest after 26.30 per cent of the Congress and 26.02 per cent of AAP. Akali Dal has been pushed down to the fourth position. The victory in Bathinda in this backdrop is little solace.

Not only in vote share. The Akali Dal could lead in  just nine Assembly segments as against 23 in case of BJP. AAP fell from 92 segments to 32 segments while the Congress improved its tally from 18 seats in 2022 to 38 Assembly segments in 2022. Both the Congress and the BJP have registered improvement and intere3stingly both these parties also share almost similar vote blocks.

The BJP has entered Punjab arena with a bang in this election, although the party has not won any seat. It has succeeded in entering even the rural areas, despite strong opposition from the farmers organisations. This is the party that is eyeing 2027 Assembly election.

The  ups and downs of these four political parties in the electoral arena is part of the normal electoral dynamics. Punjab has remained almost the same under every political formation ruling the state, be it the Akali Dal-BJP combine, the Congress or now the AAP. The state continues to be plagued by the same issues since decades.

The success or failure of any of these formation does not impact political dynamics of the state. There is another dimension that dictates this dynamics.

This  most important dimension is the result of two seats of Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot. Young Sikh activist Amritpal Singh has won from Khadoor Sahib with the highest margin of 1,97,120 votes in Punjab, more than that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi, and Sarabjit Singh, son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins  of Indira Gandhi,has won with a margin of 70,053 votes.

Detained under the National Security Act, Amritpal has been under detention in Dibrugarh jail in Assam along with eight of his associates for more than a year.

Amritpal earlier shot into fame as clone of Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale who has earned his own place in history, not only of Punjab but also India.

The assassination of prime minister Indira Gandhi can’t be explained without referring to Sant Bhindranwale whose memorial stands in the Golden Temple (Darbar Sahib) complex.

And Sarabjit Singh is son of son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins of Indira Gandhi who died in firing by his own colleagues. Sarabjit has earlier unsuccessfully tried his luck thrice. Now suddenly, he has been shot into headlines.

It may be mentioned that Sarabjit has been leading a low profile life and has never been active unlike Amritpal.

His campaigners did not seek votes in the name of Sarabjit but his father, who, they argued, had restored dignity and honour of the Sikhs by avenging Operation Bluestar, the army attack on Darbar Sahib (Golden Temple) complex, in June, 1984. Indira Gandhi was gunned down on October 31, 1984.

He had expressed his intention to context to the people who have been active in the Sikh domain (Not the Shiromani Akali Dal) over the years. A representative meeting was organized at gurdwara in Rode village to take this call. The campaign started from this native village of Sant Bhindranwale. It may be mentioned that Amritpal too had surrendered at this gurdwara in the presence of Jasbir Singh Rode.

The issue is why this sudden eruption in the Sikh reliogio-political domain. One answer can be partly found in the continuing  marginalization of the Shiromani Akali Dal after the party vacated the Panthic space as part of its ideological shift. The historical sense of injustice continue to be part of the Sikh narrative and here was the chance to give vent to that hurt feeling. It found the democratic outlet to assert itself.

This situation once again can trigger the debate in Sikh domain of a strong Akali party wedded to Panthic issues that in essence are rooted in humanism and ‘Sarbat Da Bhala’. The Panth would provide moral support and authority to the narrative.

The Sikh religio-political dynamics is not impacting India’s geo-politics at the time when 40 years have passed since the army attacked Darbar Sahib in June 1984. However, political parties in Punjab have turned indifferent to this dimension. Punjab has strong links with Sikh Diaspora. Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot phenomenon is not a narrative in isolation.

It has to be seen whether Punjab makes a new beginning in the coming period or remains status quoist.

 

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