Countdown to February 14 election in Punjab starts in the backdrop of fast changing political dynamics

 

February 14 Assembly elections in Punjab to be under new political constructs

Ground Zero

Chandigarh

 

Punjab would elect a new combination of people on February 14 next to govern this totally messed up state in the backdrop of political discourse that is unlike the earlier political situations.

The 1997 was the first normal one after this state had emerged out of long period of turmoil dictated by radical stream and the people desired peace and stability. Yet another election that was completely different was the one in 1992 that was boycotted by the main Akali Dal formation that cleared the way for the Congress to take over at the time when the political domain was highly turbulent as AK-47s ruled over the region.

The forthcoming February 14 election is characterised by three main salient features.

This is the election that is to be contested virtually within weeks of the successful struggle led by  Punjab farmers that forced Strongman Narendra Modi to repeal the three highly controversial farm laws that had had the potential to drive many of the farmers out of the agrarian sector to make cheap labour available to the corporate sector. That would have destroyed the basic character of Punjab’s socio-political and economic architecture. Punjab is agriculturally the most advanced state.

The farm struggle was unique as political formations were not allowed to share its platform. And this was the most peaceful and the longest struggle of such magnitude witnessed in the recent history of the world.

This struggle introduced the concept of accountability in the political domain. It is to be seen as to how this concept is carried forward in this election.

A section of the farmer bodies that were part of the umbrella organisation known as the Sanyukt Kisan Morcha have decided to experiment with the electoral domain by floating the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha. This is an entirely new dimension this time.

An important dimension of the farmers struggle is that it has been suspended but not withdrawn.

It was due to continuing struggle by a section of the farmers in Punjab that Prime Minister Modi was forced to return without addressing a rally at Ferozepur on January 5 thereby kicking up a major controversy at the national level. The fact of the matter is that there was no audience to listen to Modi as the BJP had utterly failed to mobilise even a few thousand people.

Modi addressing the empty chair would have been a total disaster for the BJP in the context of UP election that coincides with Punjab.

The BJP had joined hands with Punjab Lok Congress of Capt Amarinder Singh and the Akali faction headed by Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa. The Modi’s Ferozepur disaster has severely dented this new combination.

The BJP and its social media handles supported by a major section of the media in Delhi within no time unleashed the vilification campaign targeting the Sikhs. Ironically, the BJP and the Sangh Parivar needs the Sikh support to give impression to the world that the minorities are with it. Moreover, the Sangh Parivar perceives Sikhs to be part of the broader Hindu domain.

The second major dimension is the  humiliating replacement of Congress stalwart Capt Amarinder Singh as the chief minister by low profile Charanjit Singh Channi from the Dalit sections. This in itself is a bold experiment conducted by the Congress leadership in Delhi. This has triggered major changes in the electoral dynamics in the state as the Dalits constitute about 32 per cent of the population in Punjab, the highest among all other states in India.

 The Aam aadmi Party that had emerged as the main opposition in 2017 but later got reduced from 20 to 11 MLAs is selling peace and stability, the main plank on which the Shiromani Akali Dal entered the election arena way back in 1997. This party is still trying to create the perception that Punjab is disturbed.

Delhi Chief Minister and AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal staged Tiranga Yatras in Punjab like the BJP to teach patriotism to Punjabis who made the highest contribution for the freedom struggle.

The party had earlier promised to induct some well-known Sikh leader as the chief ministerial face but the search still continues till the day when the clock has already started ticking.

Yet another major dimension is that the permutation and combinations have changed as after the Shiromani Akali Dal ended its alliance with the BJP on the farmers issue. The party went back to the Bahujan Samaj Party that was its alliance partner in 1996 Lok Sabha election.

The Akali Dal is the only party that launched its aggressive campaign ahead of all other parties and is the party that has well-oiled machinery to take on the other players.

It is to be seen as to which party comes out with some long-term plan to take this state to the higher orbit of development after the earlier failed take offs.

Punjab is at a crucial stage and hence the February 14 election too is crucial.