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Decisive Punjab reposes trust in Congress but rebuffs both Amarinder and Sukhbir Badal



Jagtar Singh
The results of the four bye-elections in Punjab represent an interesting paradox.
With three out of four Assembly seats going to the Congress, Punjab has maintained the same voting pattern that was witnessed both in 2017 Assembly elections and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress victory is important in the context of the fact that one of these seats was Jalalabad that was claimed by Akali Dal president Sukhbir Singh Badal as his fiefdom.
Jalalabad, Phagwara and Mukerian have gone to the Congress while the Akal Dal has bagged Dakha that fell vacant following the resignation by Hardev Singh Phoolka who had won as Aam Aadmi Party candidate. Phagwara was vacated by Som Dutt of the BJP following his election to the Lok Sabha.
It is Jalalabad that has delivered unexpected result as the general perception was that being the bastion of Sukhbir, it would be difficult to defeat his nominee. The voters have shattered the perception that the Rai Sikhs play decisive role in Ferozepur Lok Sabha seat of which Jalalabad is a part. The Rai Sikhs have been a marginalised community but known to vote as a cohesive group.  The Akali Dal candidate was from this community.
This is one seat where Sukhbir Singh Badal had campaigned hard. The result indicates that the Akali Dal is still to come into the revival mode.
His problem is that he is not performing the role of a strong opposition leader as he continues to enjoy the perks of power.  The common complaint of the Congress MLAs till date is that the bureaucracy continues to be tilted towards the Akalis. The propaganda of Amarinder-Badal family mix up has damage Sukhbir more, it seems. People in Bathinda know as to whose writ runs in that district.
Dakha can be interpreted as defeat of Capt Amarinder Singh as the candidate Sandeep Sandhu was his officer on special duty (political) and has been associated with him for years. However, he was an outsider in Dakha and the people reacted to the imposition of an outsider. This is the only seat where Amarinder took out two road shows.
The defeat of the BJP in Phagwara has much broader implications. The party had been in an aggressive mode in the state since the Lok Sabha elections and its leaders had started saying that the Akali Dal should now start behaving like a younger brother. It is the Akali Dal that is in the role of the big brother presently. The seat sharing formula between the two partners has remained the same since the 1997 Assembly elections.
The people of Punjab has shown the BJP its place.
Mukerian has been a traditional congress bastion. Opposing the Congress was the BJP.
The BJP contested two seats and lost in both. The Akali Dal had the other two seats and managed to win one.
Here is yet another dimension. The Amarinder government continues to be under attack for non-governance including from within the party in general and a section of the MLAs in particular. This tag is not maintainable with the Congress continuing its winning spree under Capt Amarinder Singh. But then it a government on contract so far as governance is considered.
The Punjab results are decisive from another aspect. AAP has been further pushed to the corner. Like the Akali Dal, this party is not showing any sign of revival.
The Modi magic did not work in Punjab in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the state has again rejected the divisive political discourse associated with the BJP.

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