Unique and
multidimensional Punjab Lok Sabha polls 2024 different from Punjab 2019
Ground Zero
Jagtar Singh
Chandigarh, May 31:
Just hours before Punjab goes
to the polls, some issues need to be kept in mind.
Punjab’s historical political
dynamics can be, and usually is, different from its electoral dynamics.
The driving force behind the
historical political dynamics has been the Sikh religio-political dynamics.
The electoral dynamics can get
dictated by several other factors, although at time, this factor could also be
the religio-political dynamics, as was the case in 1989 Lok Sabha elections
and boycott of the 1992 Lok Sabha and
the Assembly elections. The boycott by mainstream Sikh parties too was at level
part of the electoral behaviour.
The duopoly in electoral
dynamics was shattered by the Aam Aadmi Party in 2022 Assembly elections
although this nascent non-ideological political formation otherwise swearing by
the “name” of Shaheed Bhagat Singh made its presence felt in 2014 Lok Sabha
election by capturing four out of a total of 13 seats.
AAP got resounding mandate of
92 seats out of 117 in the 2022 Assembly election and this is the first and the
main qualitative difference between 2019 and 2024. It is a new formation that
is in power.
There is yet another major
difference. The hardline Sikh politics has made its presence felt at least in
two seats of Khadoor Sahib and Faridkot (Reserve) respectively. It is pertinent
to mention here is that Sangrur is not being included in this group for certain
reasons.
Contesting from Khadoor Sahib
is Sant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale clone Amritpal Singh, presently detained
under National Security Act in faraway Dibrugarh jail in Assam and Sarabjit
Singh, son of prime minister Indira Gandhi’s assassin Beant Singh who gunned
her down to avenge Operation Bluestar, the army invasion of Sikhs’ most sacred
shrine of Darbar Sahib (Golden Temple) complex.
Akali Dal (Amritsar) MP
Simranjit Singh Mann is seeking re-election from Sangrur but he now can’t be
included under the category of Amritpal and Sarabjit who both are legacy
candidates.
This is the first election
since 1996 in which every party is going solo. This is one of the most
important dimensions.
The crowded electoral space
includes AAP, Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal, Bharatiya Janata Party, Bahujan
Samaj Party and of course, the Akali Dal (Amritsar) though confined to only a few seats, besides the
two independents whose campaign is being run by the youth brigade.
The one issue that cuts across
the three cultural regions of Malwa (That also includes Puadh comprising
districts of Ropar, Mohali, Chamkaur Sahib and Patiala), Doaba and Majha, is
increasing use of drugs. But then this issue has been part of the electoral
debate since when the Akali Dal formed the government in 2007.
Now UP chief minister Yogi
Adityanath has promised to end the menace within 48 hours provided Punjabis
vote BJP to power. His tool to wipe out drugs is bulldozer! So easy!
But then, he claims to contain
law and order situation in his once troubled state with this machine.
He should have known that long
before killing of gang leaders in ‘police encounters’ started under his
government, Punjab was the ground for hundreds of fake encounters over the
years.
The two most important seats
are Sangrur and Bathinda.
It is the survival of the
Baadal family (once the First Family of Punjab) that is at stake in Bathinda.
Badal Bahu Harsimrit Kaur Badal of Shiromani Akali Dal is seeking fourth
term-second from this seat.
In the 2022 Assembly
elections, this second oldest political party had touched the rock bottom of
just three seats. Party is headed by Sukhbir Singh Badal who had succeeded his
father Parkash Singh Badal. Badal Senior had taken over in 1995.
Akali Dal, while making a
valiant bid to return to the Panthic base, touched upon what is known as the
legacy issues in its manifesto but the same were missing in the speeches of the
Akali leaders.
Sangrur is the home district
of the chief minister.
The new dimension is the
realignment that seems to have been triggered by the kisan struggle that was
started by just about two groups days the election was to be announced. Such
agitations are normally recalled after the implementation of the model code of
conduct but these people continued, blocking even the Amritsar-Delhi main
railway track at Shambu. Of course, it was the Haryana government that
installed nails on the nearby main highway to block the march of the farmers to
Delhi.
The issue here is not who has
done what. The issue is that it is the BJP that seems to be benefitting from
the realignment caused by the so called farmer struggle as several sections have finally come out
against it in Punjab, including the business community that has been hit hard
by such repeated blockades.
Significantly, the BJP has
gone full throttle in Punjab with Narendra Modi addressing three conferences.
Modi has been seeking votes
across the country in his own name.
Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant
Singh Mann too has adopted the same strategy of seeking votes in his own name,
on his performance.
This has to be seen in the
context of strong anti-incumbency against the ruling party MLAs.
This election is also unique
as the 13 Lok Sabha seats present their own scenario in the absence of some common
narrative. Another contributory factor to this uniqueness of 13 elections is
the multiplicity of candidates many of whom have switched sides.
In such a situation, more than
the party, it is the individual who matters.
Of course, one dimension is
clear that Bhagwant Singh Mann has emerged as the leader in his own way.
In the absence of AAP chief
and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, it was Mann who stepped into his
shoes to campaign at the national level.
And lastly, the questionable
role that is being played by the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee by
coming out with posters of damaged Akal Takht and display of Guru Granth Sahib
that was hit by a bullet in Darbar Sahib before the start of Ghallughara Week
on June 1 needs to be take note of. Akali Dal has repeatedly come under attack
for using the SGPC as a political tool and this is the latest example.
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