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AAP victory in Chandigarh could impact mainly perception in Punjab going to polls in February next

 

 


Big win for AAP in local body polls in island Chandigarh close to Punjab polls

 

Ground Zero

Jagtar Singh

 

Two significant trends are available on Monday in the context of the forthcoming Assembly elections in Punjab due in February 2022 that is going to be the most intense competition ever witnessed as it is going to be five dimensional.

The Aam Aadmi Party today registered a major victory but remained short of absolute majority in the municipal corporation elections in Chandigarh pushing the ruling Bharatiya Party to the second position. The Congress failed to harvest the anti-incumbency and trailed at third position.

Punjab Congress president Navjot Singh Sidhu yesterday raked up further controversy as usual thereby plunging his own party further down the tunnel going by today’s headline that stated ‘Sidhu targets Channi govt, again’. Of course, it is not a complete headline but the second part –‘Will not rest till Majithia is arrested’ has nothing to do with the first part. It is the first part that is important.

Although the Union Territory of Chandigarh is capital of Punjab, and also Haryana, it is virtually an island and one can feel the difference as one enters Mohali. Many of the senior Punjab politicians live in Chandigarh unlike their Haryana counterparts.

In the 35-member House, AAP has secured 14 seats followed by the BJP with 12, the Congress with eight with one seat going to the Akali Dal. It is the vote percentage that provides an interesting insight. The AAP has been able to get 27.13 per cent, BJP has scored 29.25 per cent with the Congress securing the highest share at 29.87 per cent. The ward-wise distribution of the seats indicate that AAP has won mainly in  areas with lower working class population.

Unlike Punjab, Chandigarh does not throw up issues that are ideological in nature and AAP is essentially a non-ideological but soft-Hindu party that seeks to replace the Congress at the national level.

AAP had emerged as the main opposition in 2017 Assembly elections in Punjab replacing the Shiromani Akali Dal but collapsed under its own weight as nine of its MLAs deserted the party.

Moreover, the party is still searching for a ‘Sikh face’ to lead its election campaign.

The Chandigarh result as such would not make much of impact on the electoral arena in Punjab whose political discourse is completely different and is highly volatile. The situation in Punjab is changing almost every day.

The decision by a section of the farmer leaders to form a body to contest elections as added yet another dimension.

What is important in Punjab at the juncture more than the likely impact of Chandigarh municipal polls in Punjab is the inner power struggle within the Congress that refuses to subside.

Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi is not only facing opposition parties but also his own party chief Navjot Singh Sidhu who has suddenly sharpened his attack against his own government.

The latest case is that of his rally at Batala where he not only questioned Channi’s performance but also lashed out at Panchayats Minister Tript Rajinder Singh Bajwa without naming him. He represents the neighbouring constituency of Fatehgarh Churian and was focusing on Batala as an alternative. Bajwa was among those who had spearheaded the move for the replacement of Capt Amarinder Singh.

It is now too obvious that Sidhu is trying to dictate the party’s central leadership in declaring him as the chief ministerial face. The leadership recently made it clear that the Congress would contest the polls under joint command of senior leaders.

This solution had been worked out to contain factionalism in the party as at one time, the thinking was taking roots to replace Sidhu by Sunil Jakhar.

It seems, however, that even this arrangement is not working.

The central leadership is keen to play the Dalit card not only in Punjab and also other states with the appointment of Channi as the chief minister. Punjab has about 32 per cent Dalit population and it is for the first time that at the electoral level, this section is getting consolidated.

The ministers whom Sidhu has attacked are strongly resenting the state of affairs as the situation is getting out of control. The Congress continues to be in self-destructive mode.

The issue is that of default gainer. Going by the present situation, it is the Shiromani Akali Dal with its cadre intact that can gain more from the deepening crisis in the Congress as compared to AAP that is grappling with different problems in the state, besides that of effective leadership. interestingly, the senior Akali leader has not made the FIR against its leader Bikram Singh Majithia an issue indicating deeper strategic planning .

The Akali Dal is already in the process of giving different direction to its religio-political discourse.

AAP is definitely trying to out-compete others in perception game but that was the situation in 2017 too.

Punjab’s electoral dynamics this time is changing too fast.


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