Repeal of
farm laws may dictate new permutations and combinations in Punjab polls arena
Ground Zero
Jagtar Singh
The historic
victory of the farm struggle that otherwise is still to be taken to the logical
questions has not only dented the carefully crafted image over time of Prime
Minister Narendra Modi of being the Iron
Man but has also questioned his credibility going by the qualified reaction of
the farm leaders to the announcement of repeal of the controversial three farm
laws.
The
narrative might have been different in case he had directly interacted with the
farm leaders and made the announcement in their presence as that would have
facilitated in creating concensus on the modalities for facilitating immediate
withdrawal of farm struggle and vacation of dharna sites at the gates of Delhi
at three places.
But then the
farmers were not given even a hint at the time when they were administered the
shock of implementation of the three laws through ordinance in June 2020 that
provoked immediate reaction in Punjab that finally emerged as epicentre of the
struggle not only against these laws but also against the very market oriented
model of development that is anti-people.
Such
approach to the sensitive issues stems more from arrogance. This is a lesson
that is to be learnt by the political elite in Punjab too.
That the
withdrawal, besides being dictated by strong undercurrents against BJP
especially in Western UP, is also Punjab centric is evident from the timing as
the announcement was made on birth anniversary of Guru Nanak, the founder of
the Sikh religion. Earlier, the Modi government announced the opening of the
Kartarpur Sahib corridor to the shrine on other side of the border in Pakistan
where the Guru spent his last about 17 years.
New reality
in regional geo-politics is the emergence of China-Pakistan-Afghanistan axis and Punjab is strategically located. Moreover,
Punjab’s religio-political discourse is highly volatile. This state was
subjected to more than a decade long militant struggle beginning 1980.
At the level
of economy, Modi is following the very policies of liberalisation and
corporatisation that were initiated at the time when Dr. Manmohan Singh was the
finance minister. Technically, these policies were set in motion in 1994. The
farm laws too flow from those policies. Modi was continuing that very model and
it has now come under question. The region most affected by these laws happens
to be the strategic Punjab.
The
political narrative associated with the farm struggle has to be reviewed and
assessed in this backdrop.
Interestingly,
the only party that was directly impacted by the farm agitation, not only in
Punjab but at the national level too, is
the Shiromani Akali Dal. The party had been in alliance with the Bharatiya
Janata Party since 1996 that was formalised before February 1997 Assembly
election.
It was perhaps
this relationship that dictated the approach of the party to these bills at the
first stage after promulgation of the three ordinances. Alliances are based
upon mutual trust and Modi had touted these laws as pro-farmer.
The party last
year opted for a major course correction since 1997 when it decided to end this
alliance as the struggle intensified. Akali Dal representative Harsimrat Kaur Badal
resigned from the Modi cabinet before the relationship ended.
The farmers
in Punjab are mainly the Sikhs.
It is in
this context that reference has earlier been made to the withdrawal being
Punjab-centric along with UP.
Shiromani
Akali Dal has been the party of the Sikhs and continues to be the that very
party despite several changes over the years. But then the Sikh philosophy preaches
universal brotherhood and egalitarianism and as such, this approach was within
this framework. Of course, this approach should have been carefully calibrated.
Farmers have
been the main constituency of this party that used to focus on Sikh affairs and
the farmers are mainly the Sikhs.
It is in
this context that the dynamics of the emerging electoral combinations would
have to be worked out by this second oldest political party in the country. The
regional parties by their very nomenclature and character represent the
aspirations and ambitions of the region and get associated with that region. It
is pertinent to mention in this framework that the Sikhs were the third party
in all the negotiations leading to freedom of the country.
With the
farm struggle getting phased out in the coming days, the electoral dynamics of
Punjab would return to normal.
The Congress
so far had the agenda of the farm struggle to cover its anti-incumbency rooted
in the period when Capt Amarinder Singh was the chief minister who was replaced
by Charanjit Singh Channi because of this very reason.
With that
cover having got blown away, the ruling Congress would have to give its account
to the people.
The Akali
Dal and the Aam Aadmi Party now have the choice to focus mainly on
anti-incumbency while coming up with own pro-people long term agenda. AAP,
however, has been collapsing over time and this party is still to get out of
that mess. This party till date lacks credible face to lead it to the electoral
arena. This is clearly advantage Akali Dal.
The Akali
Dal would have to effectively reassert itself as the symbol of Punjab to pose
direct challenge to the Congress and this is not a Herculean task under the
given fluid situation.
The impact
of the victorious farm struggle on the political and electoral dynamics would
start becoming clear in not too distant a time.
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