Two binaries emerging in Punjab’s multi-polar polls where last 72 hours are always crucial

 

Two binaries emerging in Punjab’s multi-polar polls where last 72 hours are always crucial

 

Ground Zero

Jagtar Singh

Chandigarh, May 28: The inter-play of socio-political forces in Punjab in the run up to the June 1 Lok Sabha elections is unprecedented.

This is besides that established fact that the religio-political dynamics of this state has always been different from the rest of India, even when the boundaries of this country touched the Khyber Pass connecting with Afghanistan.

It is for the first time that so many main political players are in the fray independently thereby making the contest multi-polar.

Then there are two other eruptions in the electoral matrix making the multi-polar contest all the more interesting, and also important for future dynamics of not only Punjab but also India as the roots of this phenomena are not in too distant a past but in not so recent period of militancy.

It is after decades that Punjab is going to the polls without any pre-poll alliance, especially since 1996 Lok Sabha elections. It may be mentioned that even the Congress at times opted for pre-poll alliance  in the state.

It is despite this multipolarity that two interesting binaries are emerging.

One has to first go to the main political parties that are trying their luck.

It is the first Lok Sabha election after their alliance ended that Shiromani Akali Dal and the Bharatiya Janata Party are going solo.

The other main players are the Punjab’s ruling  Aam Aadmi Party and the main opposition that is the Congress. These parties are confronting each other in the state but are in alliance at the national level, including in neghbouring Chandigarh.

The electoral matrix is subjected to eruptions at two places by way of candidatures of Sikh activists Amritpal Singh and Sarabjit Singh both of whom are considered to represent the radical tinge and are making their presence felt.

Amritpal Singh contesting from Khadoor Sahib is presently under detention under NSA and lodged in Dibrugarh jail while Sarabjit Singh is son of Beant Singh, one of the assassins of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and is an independent candidate from Faridkot (Reserve). Both his mother Bimal Kaur Khalsa and grandfather Sucha Singh Maloya had won in the 1989 Lok Sabha elections.

The most important dimension of this election is the churning in Punjab’s political matrix dictated by multiple forces and factors.

It is for the first time that the Bharatiya Janata Party is going full throttle in Punjab even as the party is not to be perceived to be in a position to win a single seat out of the total 13. The party is rather eyeing the 2027 Assembly elections in the state.

It may be mentioned here that after the end of its more than two-decade old alliance with the Shiromani Akali Dal, that used to be projected as the social alliance rather than just being political, in 2020 on the issue of three farm laws opposed by the farmers but initially supported by the Akalis, the BJP had contested the 2022 Assembly election without any partner. It is in this contest that the added thrust this time is a new dimension. Both the SAD and the BJP had been routed in that election yielding space to Aam Aadmi Party that emerged victorious with the Congress occupying the main opposition space.

It may be recalled that the SAD had been pushed to third place after the AAP in 2017 Assembly elections with the Congress forming the government. The steep decline of the Akali Dal has continued since then.

Yet another new dimension is that of AAP and the Congress that are in alliance at the national level but opposing each other in Punjab. Both are part of INDIA block of opposition parties in which the Congress has the dominating role. This dimension is very important in the construction of the two binaries.

Punjab has always been rocked by its exclusive religio-political discourse that is dictated by the Sikh religio-political dynamics.

The state was earlier hit by sudden turbulence when a young man landed from Dubai and donned a new role. The young man was Amritpal Singh, who first partook Amrit and then started his campaign ostensibly to  wean away youth from drugs and become Amritdharis. Nothing wrong in this but it was his style that created the problem and provoked the government to take the harsh step of detaining him and his eight other associates under the draconian National Security Act and sent then to far away Dibrugarh jail in Assam.

In the electoral mix, Amritpal has emerged as a new phenomenon. He is contesting from Khadoor Sahib, the area that once was the hotbed of militancy with Tarn Taran having acquired the moniker of being the liberated zone of Khalistan at one time. His village falls in this constituency. He had earlier rejected the Indian constitution and the parliamentary practice. This is a new turn in his tactics.

Yet another candidate from this stream is Sarabjit Singh, son of Beant Singh who had gunned down prime minister Indira Gandhi to avenge Operation Bluestar, the army invasion of Darbar Sahib (Golden Temple) complex in the first week of June, 1984 in which hundreds of innocent devotees also became the victim.

Beant was honoured as Shaheed (Martyr) by the Shiromani Gurdwara Parbandhak Committee and the Akal Takht, the supreme symbol of Sikh sovereignty in front of Darbar Sahib. His martyrdom is observed at Akal Takht by the SGPC every year on October 31 on the very day the anniversary of  Indira Gandhi is observed in the test of the country. It is a tale of two martyrdoms.

Both Amritpal and Sarabjit are being perceived by the Sikhs as the symbol of the Sikh dignity. They are occupying the very Panthic space that was vacated by the Shiromani Akali Dal years back.

However, the 2024 election can’t be compared with 1989 polls when almost all the candidates supported by Damdami Taksal, United Akali Dal and the All India Sikh Federation had won. Militancy was at its peak then. The Akali Dal had been then completely marginalized.

Simranjit Singh Mann was one of those who had won with a massive margin in 1989. All these candidates including Bimal Kaur Khalsa and Sucha Singh Maloya, mother and grandfather of Sarabjit, had won with a margin of more than one lakh votes.

Sarabjit had contested the 2004 Lok Sabha election as Akali Dal (Amritsar) candidate and bagged 113490 votes from Bathinda (Reserve).

Interestingly, he seems to be changing the electoral narrative of Faridkot (reserve) this time from where he is contesting as independent.

It is in this backdrop that the binaries that are emerging are important.

During this Punjab tour in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed three political conferences over two days, he intriguingly spared the Akali Dal. It was in an interview that appeared in The Tribune that he questioned functioning of the erstwhile alliance partner.

It was his silence that has contributed to one binary despite the fact that Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal has been aggressively attacking the BJP for capturing Sikh institutions as part of the design.

The perception in Punjab is that the Akali Dal might join hands with the BJP as post-poll alliance in case of winning some seats. This has created a perception that a vote for the SAD might end up as a vote for the BJP. This is one binary. This binary is damaging for the Akali Dal.

Then there is the binary relating to AAP and the Congress as both the parties are partners at the national level but opponents here. The Congress  is a bigger party in INDIA bloc with AAP being a smaller partner. Being a dominating partner, it is the Congress that would have major role in government formation in case such a situation arises. This has triggered the view that then why not vote for the main party at the national level. This is the second binary that has emerged.

The churning in the political matrix is resulting in realignment of social base of the electoral behaviour.

Significantly, Modi factor was absent in 2019 but the situation is different this time.

Yet another important dimension is the inter-play of forces in the last 72 hours. This has been happening since the 1989 elections.

It is this period when the churning start dictating political behavior of the people at large. The situation suddenly undergoes the change.

Along with the two binaries, the churning in the last 72 hours would dictate the outcome.

This is one election in which the third position too would be significant.